some of my thoughts on the future

𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐞 the world is reorganising around four chokepoints: intelligence, money, energy, and infrastructure. whoever owns the chokepoint owns the person downstream of it. the bet is that each can be loosened. 𝒏𝒐𝒕 abolished. loosened.

𝐦𝐲 𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐛𝐞𝐭𝐬

  • machine labor is real. the question is who prices it. right now, a handful of companies own the models, set the rates, and rent cognition back to everyone else. the bet is on open markets for machine work.

  • private money is the economic expression of the right to exist without narrating every transaction to institutions whose definitions of what's "currently legitimate" shift by administration.

  • digital infrastructure needs at least one sovereignty-preserving refuge built on hostile design constraints: censorship resistance, privacy, extraction resistance, open source.

  • solar scales because dependence on centralised energy got expensive. energy companies do not fear clean power. they fear a customer who buys less and needs the grid less. the bet is that millions of rooftops producing power changes who has leverage over whom.

  • post-scarcity does not liberate the unprepared (you). it exposes them (it exposes you). identity built on output, status, and performance becomes fragile. the real preparation is inward. introspection is now strategic (sorry, andreessen). analyse yourself, or find someone to do it with you.

𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐡𝐨𝐥𝐝𝐬 𝐢𝐭 𝐭𝐨𝐠𝐞𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 I believe in the future and stronger adoption of more open systems.

the common architecture is exit. the ability to reduce dependence on any single system enough that the system must treat you as a participant rather than a subject.

in every domain there is a company that wants to own the bottleneck and an open project trying to remove it. open systems let you switch, fork, and leave. closed ones let you pay or comply. that difference compounds. LLMs today make it easier for non-technical people to switch to open systems that lack a clean onboarding. use them & start small. for example: icloud → immich; dropbox/drive → file browser/nextcloud. or.... use signal!

if you cannot leave a system, you do not use it. it uses you.

the thesis is preparation. the world is becoming more mediated, more surveilled, more convenient, and less negotiable. the bet is to insist that some of it remains structured around the person rather than around the institution.